Our new study: 1.3m sea level rise - unless coal phase out

The study by our own Alexander Nauels on sea level rise projections, featured in the Guardian..

see here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/26/sea-levels-to-rise-13m-unless-coal-power-ends-by-2050-report-says

see also Washington Post article here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/10/26/new-science-suggests-the-ocean-could-rise-more-and-faster-than-we-thought

and original article here: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6

Sea levels to rise 1.3m unless coal power ends by 2050, report says

University of Melbourne paper combines latest understanding on Antarctica and current emissions projection scenarios Crack in Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica The extra contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica will not kick in if warming is kept at less than 1.9C above preindustrial levels, the researchers found. 

Photograph: IceBridge/Nasa View more sharing options Shares 857 Comments 652 Michael Slezak @MikeySlezak email Thursday 26 October 2017 22.00 AEDTLast modified on Friday 27 October 2017 08.00 AEDT

Coastal cities around the world could be devastated by 1.3m of sea level rise this century unless coal-generated electricity is virtually eliminated by 2050, according to a new paper that combines the latest understanding of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise and the latest emissions projection scenarios. It confirms again that significant sea level rise is inevitable and requires rapid adaptation. But, on a more positive note, the work reveals the majority of that rise – driven by newly recognised processes on Antarctica – could be avoided if the world fulfils its commitment made in Paris to keep global warming to “well below 2C”.

Antarctic sea ice levels hit record low, but experts are not sure why Read more In 2016, Robert DeConto from the University of Massachusetts Amherst revealed that Antarctica could contribute to massive sea level rise much earlier than thought, suggesting ice sheet collapse would occur sooner and identifying a new process where huge ice cliffs would disintegrate. But that paper only examined the impact of Antarctica on sea level rise, ignoring other contributions, and didn’t examine the details of what measures society needed to take to avoid those impacts. The new paper by Alexander Nauels from the University of Melbourne and colleagues uses simplified physical models that allowed them to explore all known contributions to sea level rise, and pair them with the new generation of emissions scenarios which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will use in the next set of reports. Under all scenarios we are going to have to adapt Sea level expert John Church They found that if nothing is done to limit carbon pollution, then global sea levels will rise by an estimated 1.32m.

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