Facts4Paris: EU INDC does not meet 'fair share' nor 'leadership' criteria.
The EU has long been regarded a leader in international climate policy. However, with some internal voices putting up barriers (Poland, for example), this may be a thing of the past.
The EU 20% target by 2020 has basically been achieved. This is great in terms of past achievements! However, future ambitions are not so progressive.
We compared the EU's 2030 target of 40% below 1990 emission levels against various criteria (in line with our assumptions for a 2°C target):
- In a world where everybody converges towards the same per-capita emissions level in the future (but nations with lower-than world-average emissions take some extra time to do so) the EU's 'fair' target would be 51% below 1990 levels.
- In a world where historical emissions are recognised and thus everybody converges towards the same cumulative per-capita emissions—an approach favoured by China and India—the EU's 'fair' target is at least a 58% below 1990 levels.
- Lastly, if the EU wants to reclaim the status of 'climate leader' in such a way that every other nation could follow the EU example (setting their own climate targets correspondingly but with their own understandings of 'fairness') the EU's target needs to be 67% below 1990 levels.
Clearly there is some way to go!
Yet there is hope...after all, the 'i' in INDCs stands for 'intended'.