Radio interview: Greg Hunt is focussing on 1.9% of Australian emissions
The College is featured in an interview with The Wire. From: http://www.thewire.org.au/storyDetail.aspx?ID=13336 Greg Hunt is focusing on 1.9% of total emissions Monday, 9 November 2015 Produced by Francine Crimmins Listen to the audio here. The United Nations Climate Summit in Paris is less than 20 days away. So, how is Australian Environment Minister Greg Hunt preparing to fulfill his promise...
Facts4Paris: Until 1995, the G7 were the major cumulative emissions contributor but not after; and sometime in 2020-30 non-Annex I nations become the major cumulative contributors.
The industrialised countries were responsible for the majority of emissions during much of the 20th century, despite having only a small fraction of the world's population. In fact, up to 1995, more than half of all global cumulative emissions were produced by the G7 countries. After 1995, the majority of emissions has been caused by non-G7 countries (see the crossover point on the graph above)...
Facts4Paris: In the landscape of global emission shares everything is changing except for the G20.
Greenhouse gas emission shares of global emission in each year are less and less dominated by the so-called industrialised countries. By 2014, G7 countries collectively accounted for a quarter of global emissions (see our earlier Facts4Paris ), but in the old days, this was much higher. Back in 1900-1920, the G7 accounted for 70% of global emissions. The share of current emissions from the non-...
Facts4Paris: UNEP GAP report estimates 12-14 GtCO2e gap by 2030, but only half as much by 2025.
The 2015 UNEP gap report was released on Friday just one week after the UNFCCC Synthesis Report on the aggregate effect of the INDCs was published. The numbers in the UNEP report basically confirm those of the UNFCCC Synthesis Report. The message is the same: the gap between where the INDCs will take us by 2030 and where the world needs to be for a least-cost trajectory towards 2°C is vast: an...
Facts4Paris: Long-term millennial sea-level rise of 3 to 13 metres follows warming of 2°C.
Half a degree difference does not sound like much. However, half a degree difference in global mean temperatures is likely to mean more than a metre difference in ultimate sea-level rise. Summarising the evidence assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Levermann et al. have estimated that we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 metres per degree of warming for the next 2,...
Climate Engineering: Early Reflections on a Complex Conversation
Citation: Nigel Moore; Hajar Benmazhar; Kerryn Brent; Haomiao Du; Viliamu Iese; Salif Kone; Cush Ngonzo Luwesi; Vivian Scott; Jordan Smith; Anita Talberg; Michael Thompson and Zhihong Zhuo (2015) Climate Law 5(2-4):295-301. Link to access information: http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/18786561-00504007
Facts4Paris: Chinese CO2 emissions may be uncertain but existing estimates are still valid.
Yesterday the New York Times reported that Chinese coal consumption may be 17% higher than was previously thought. The article was picked up by other media outlets such as The Guardian and TIME . Obviously, this is not great news. But it's also not as bad, or as revelatory, as is being suggested. Using the revised coal consumption figures to calculate Chinese CO 2 emissions simply puts official...
Facts4Paris: Of 'best case' emissions reductions pledged in the INDCs, one quarter is conditional on external support.
There are a couple of uncertainties in the emissions reduction targets put forward by countries in their INDCs. The first is that many of the INDCs include emissions reduction targets presented as ranges. The Australian INDC , for example, includes a target of 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. The second is that many developing countries have proposed ranges of targets that are contingent on...
Facts4Paris: EU INDC does not meet 'fair share' nor 'leadership' criteria.
The EU has long been regarded a leader in international climate policy. However, with some internal voices putting up barriers (Poland, for example), this may be a thing of the past. The EU 20% target by 2020 has basically been achieved. This is great in terms of past achievements! However, future ambitions are not so progressive. We compared the EU's 2030 target of 40% below 1990 emission levels...
Facts4Paris: The map of per-capita emissions will change between now and 2030.
We've mapped the effect of INDCs in terms of per-capita emissions: The size of the bubbles indicates total aggregate national emissions (total not per-capita). The horizontal position (left-right) refers to the country's per-capita emissions in 2010—further to the right means higher per-capita emissions. The vertical distribution (up-down) represents the percent change in per-capita emissions...
Facts4Paris: World emission shares are roughly: one quarter: G7, one quarter: China, one quarter: rest of the G20, one quarter: rest of the world.
Although all countries have to varying degrees contributed to the causes of climate change and all countries are impacted by climate change, some countries can have more of a role in emissions reduction than others. This relates very simply to countries' absolute share of global emissions. While we strive for a global deal in Paris this year, it is worth recognising that a regime focussing on...
Facts4Paris: Temperatures in 2100 could be 3.5°C, 2.7° or less than 2°C warmer, depending on what happens after 2030.
Temperatures in 2100 depend largely on emissions after 2030—that is on what happens after the INDCs lapse: If we assume "no direct connection between efforts before and after 2030", we may be set for a 3.5°C temperature increase by 2100, according to the Climate Interactive group . If we assume "a similar level of effort will be undertaken by countries post-2030 as applies in the period 2020-2030...
Facts4Paris: Sum of INDCs bridges just 27% of current emissions gap by 2025 and 22% by 2030.
A gap exists between all reference scenarios* and 2°C scenarios**. According the UNFCCC Aggregation Report released today, the sum of INDCs bridges just 27%*** of that gap by 2025 and just 22% of the gap by 2030. The remaining gap (in dark blue) is about 9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025 and about 15 gigatonnes in 2030. * Reference scenarios are those that "capture action...
Facts4Paris: The later we start reducing, the steeper the decline to 2050.
Our middle-of-the-range sum of INDCs gives an approximate figure of 55 Gt of emissions by 2030 (GWP AR4 metric). This is above 2020 emission projections for both the Copenhagen and Cancun pledges. It suggests that we are heading in the wrong direction. Global emissions need to come down, not increase further, if the world is to have a likely change of keeping warming within 2°C. Looking at all...
Check out our latest online tool: www.mitigation-contributions.org (If you are referred to this site from mitigation-contributions.org or elsewhere, please note that the www. is important. For SSL security reasons, only www.mitigation-contributions.org works). proceed-here400.png From The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/choose-your-own-climate-adventure-a-new-website-lets-you-build-a-...
Facts4Paris: There are 16 INDCs for the top 20 emitters—those missing are: international shipping, Iran, Saudi Arabia and international aviation.
We ranked all 195 Parties to the UNFCCC according to their greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 including the two main sectors that were left out of the Kyoto Protocol: international shipping and international aviation. Both of these are big emitters with rapidly growing emissions and are two of the four INDCs missing from the top 20 emitters. In order of total emissions: International shipping...
Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals
Authors : Joeri Rogelj, Andy Reisinger, David L McCollum, Reto Knutti, Keywan Riahi, and Malte Meinshausen Abstract : Global-mean temperature increase is roughly proportional to cumulative emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2). Limiting global warming to any level thus implies a finite CO2 budget. Due to geophysical uncertainties, the size of such budgets can only be expressed in probabilistic terms...
Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis
Authors : D.J. Rasmussen, Malte Meinshausen, Robert E. Kopp Abstract : Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions...
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Authors : Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Malte Meinshausen, Reto Knutti, Joseph Alcamo, Keywan Riahi, and William Hare Abstract : Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point...
National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership
Authors : Malte Meinshausen, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Guetschow, Yann Robiou du Pont, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Niklas Höhne, Michel den Elzen, Sebastian Oberthür, and Nicolai Meinshausen Abstract : Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2C or 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions...
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