Yann Robiou du Pont

Student

Yann obtained a Master’s in climate, ocean and atmosphere science (Pierre and Marie Curie University) as well as a Magister in theoretical physics (University of Paris-Sud). He has various research experience in oceanography (Equatorial Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctica), hydrology, cosmology and sea ice rheology at the universities of Pierre and Marie Curie, Harvard, Berkeley, Oxford, Copenhagen and McGill, respectively. After a year of field research in Benin and a sailing journey across the Arctic North-West Passage, Yann enrolled in the College and modelled national greenhouse gases emissions scenarios following a combination of different vision of climate justice:

Climate justice: Can we agree to disagree?
Operationalising competing equity principles to mitigate global warming

PhD thesis submitted in October 2017

The international community has agreed to limit global warming to 2 °C and pursue 1.5 °C. Staying within this boundary implies undertaking strong mitigation commitments. At climate conferences, countries exposed different equity concepts to drive the sharing of the required mitigation. The sum of each country’s self-determined fair share of the global mitigation burden is insufficient to keep warming below 2 °C, let alone 1.5 °C. This PhD project assesses how to distribute the GHG emissions consistent with the temperature goals under a combination of effort sharing approaches. A normative method determines coherent national mitigation targets under a combination of equity approaches. This quantitative 'hybrid' approach adopts the distributive nature of a bottom-up approach with the stringency of a top-down approach.

The research project is a collaboration between the University of Melbourne and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany.

Supervisors: A/Prof. Malte Meinshausen, A/Prof. Peter Christoff

German Supervisor: Louise Jeffery

Start Date: October 2013

Contact: yann.rdp@climate-energy-college.org

Publications
First author:
Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, (Nature Climate Change, 2017)
National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement, (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Co-author:
National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership, (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Website:
How fair are countries' climate pledges?, Robiou du Pont, Y., Jeffery, M. L. (2016)
http://paris-equity-check.org

Report:
The Paris Agreement global goals: What does a fair share for G20 countries look like? (2017)

ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1275-9597

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Completion seminar - Yann Robiou du Pont, July 28th 2017

Abstract: With the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to 1.5 °C. Equitable distribution across countries of emissions rights consistent with these goals is contentious and involves divergent views of distributive justice. With the absence of consensus on an effort-sharing approach, current negotiations under the UNFCCC follow an uncoordinated, or ‘bottom-up’, approach where each country tends to support its favoured approach. The sum of all parties’ announced contributions is not consistent with the Paris Agreement goals.

This thesis offers a normative method to quantify national emissions trajectories consistent with the temperature goals under each IPCC equity category or a combination of approaches in a ‘bottom-up’ regime. The resulting emissions allocation provides a new scale, is inclusive of all international positions, to assess the ambition of the Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement global goals: What does a fair share for G20 countries look like?

Author: Yann Robiou du Pont12
1 Australian-German Climate and Energy College
2 EU Centre on shared complex challenges
Download full report here.

This report reviews the literature to compare the socio-economic implications and climate impacts of achieving each of the Paris Agreement temperature goals: 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Drawing on a recent publication (Robiou du Pont, Jeffery, Gütschow, et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017) and its related website Paris-equity-check.org, this report then examines the scenarios to reduce greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions consistent with the Paris global goals.

Finally, this report presents greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions targets for G20 members consistent with the five effort sharing categories contained in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and compares the equity performances of their climate pledges against their own declarations on equity.

The Paris Agreement global goals: What does a fair share for G20 countries look like?Key findings

  • The pledges of the G20 members are collectively insufficient to meet any concept of equity
  • Collectively, G20 pledges for 2030 should be lower by 39 percent (of 2010 levels) to align with the average of the five equity concepts under the 2 °C goal, and 63 percentage lower under the 1.5 °C goal
  • The G20 can close the 2030 mitigation gap towards 2 °C and considerably reduce the gap towards 1.5 °C by adopting the average of the five equity allocations
  • Brazil and Mexico are the most ambitious countries towards the 2 °C goal with pledges within the range of four out of five equity allocations, followed by the EU whose 2030 pledge is within the range of three
  • The pledges of Russia, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are weaker than any equity allocation

Paris Equity Check Website

A new interactive website shows how equitable are countries' climate pledges under the Paris Agreement mitigation goals. This website is based on a Nature Climate Change study that compares Nationally Determined Contributions with equitable national emissions trajectories in line with the five categories of equity outlined by the IPCC.

Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Authors: Yann Robiou du Pont, M. Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Joeri Rogelj, Peter Christoff & Malte Meinshausen

Abstract: Benchmarks to guide countries in ratcheting-up ambition, climate finance, and support in an equitable manner are critical but not yet determined in the context of the Paris Agreement1. We identify global cost-optimal mitigation scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement goals and allocate their emissions dynamically to countries according to five equity approaches. At the national level, China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is weaker than any of the five equity approaches, India’s NDC is aligned with two, and the EU’s and the USA’s with three. Most developing countries’ conditional (Intended) NDCs (INDCs) are more ambitious than the average of the five equity approaches under the 2°C goal. If the G8 and China adopt the average of the five approaches, the gap between conditional INDCs and 2°C-consistent pathways could be closed. For an equitable, cost-optimal achievement of the 1.5°C target, emissions in 2030 are 21% lower (relative to 2010) than for 2°C for the G8 and China combined, and 39% lower for remaining countries. Equitably limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C requires that individual countries achieve mitigation milestones, such as peaking or reaching net-zero emissions, around a decade earlier.

Citation: Robiou du Pont, Y., Jeffery, M. L., Gütschow, J., Rogelj, J., Christoff, P., & Meinshausen, M. (2016). Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Nat. Clim. Change , advance online publication. doi:10.1038/nclimate3186

The article is available here.

Equitably Determined Contributions to reach the Paris Agreement goals - the 1.5°C perspective

What are countries' fair shares of global mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C?
Yann Robiou du Pont, PhD Candidate at the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, presented at the International Conference - "1.5 Degrees: Meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement", held at the University of Oxford in September. The full session on 'Mitigation Pathways' is available online.

Equitably Determined Contributions to reach the Paris Agreement goals - the 1.5C perspective

National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement

Authors: Yann Robiou du Pont , M Louise Jeffery , Johannes Gütschow , Peter Christoff and Malte Meinshausen

Citation: National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement
Yann Robiou du Pont, M Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Peter Christoff and Malte Meinshausen
2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 054005 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054005

Direct link: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054005?fromSearchPage=true

Abstract:

In June 2015, the G7 agreed to two global mitigation goals: ‘a decarbonization of the global economy over the course of this century’ and ‘the upper end of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)recommendation of 40%–70% reductions by 2050 compared to 2010’. These IPCC recommendations aim to preserve a likely (>66%) chance of limiting global warming to 2 °C but are not necessarily consistent with the stronger ambition of the subsequent Paris Agreement of ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’. The G7 did not specify global or national emissions scenarios consistent with its own agreement. Here we identify global cost-optimal emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models that match the G7 agreement. These scenarios have global 2030 emissions targets of 11%–43% below 2010, global net negative CO2 emissions starting between 2056 and 2080, and some exhibit net negative greenhouse gas emissions from 2080 onwards. We allocate emissions from these global scenarios to countries according to five equity approaches representative of the five equity categories presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC(IPCCAR5): ‘capability’, ‘equality’, ‘responsibility-capability-need’, ‘equal cumulative per capita’ and ‘staged approaches’. Our results show that G7 members’Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) mitigation targets are in line with a grandfathering approach but lack ambition to meet various visions of climate justice. The INDCs of China and Russia fall short of meeting the requirements of any allocation approach. Depending on how their INDCs are evaluated, the INDCs of India and Brazil can match some equity approaches evaluated in this study.

National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

Authors: Malte Meinshausen, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Guetschow, Yann Robiou du Pont, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Niklas Höhne, Michel den Elzen, Sebastian Oberthür, and Nicolai Meinshausen

Abstract: Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2C or 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database and provide country-level details for three approaches. At this stage, however, it seems utopian to assume that the international community will agree on a single allocation scheme. Here, we investigate an approach that involves a major-economy country taking the lead. In a bottom-up manner, other countries then determine what they consider a fair comparable target, for example, either a ‘per-capita convergence’ or ‘equal cumulative per-capita’ approach. For example, we find that a 2030 target of 67% below 1990 for the EU28, a 2025 target of 54% below 2005 for the USA or a 2030 target of 32% below 2010 for China could secure a likely chance of meeting the 2C target in our illustrative default case. Comparing those targets to post-2020 mitigation targets reveals a large gap. No major emitter can at present claim to show the necessary leadership in the concerted effort of avoiding warming of 2C in a diverse global context.

Citation: Meinshausen, M., L. Jeffery, J. Guetschow, Y. Robiou du Pont, J. Rogelj, M. Schaeffer, N. Hohne, M. den Elzen, S. Oberthur and N. Meinshausen (2015). "National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership." Nature Clim. Change advance online publication.

Link to main article: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2826.html

Supplementary available here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate2826-s1.pdf

Interactive data appendix: www.mitigation-contributions.org

Slidestack with slideshow: http://www.climate-energy-college.net/files/site1/docs/11/SlideStack_Post-2020GHGreductions.ppt

Briefing paper on main findings: http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/climate-leadership