Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals
Authors : Joeri Rogelj, Andy Reisinger, David L McCollum, Reto Knutti, Keywan Riahi, and Malte Meinshausen Abstract : Global-mean temperature increase is roughly proportional to cumulative emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2). Limiting global warming to any level thus implies a finite CO2 budget. Due to geophysical uncertainties, the size of such budgets can only be expressed in probabilistic terms...
Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis
Authors : D.J. Rasmussen, Malte Meinshausen, Robert E. Kopp Abstract : Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions...
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Authors : Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Malte Meinshausen, Reto Knutti, Joseph Alcamo, Keywan Riahi, and William Hare Abstract : Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point...
National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership
Authors : Malte Meinshausen, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Guetschow, Yann Robiou du Pont, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Niklas Höhne, Michel den Elzen, Sebastian Oberthür, and Nicolai Meinshausen Abstract : Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2C or 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions...
Bioenergy maize and soil erosion—Risk assessment and erosion control concepts
Authors: Vogel, E., Deumlich, D., & Kaupenjohann, M. Abstract : In the last decade, legislative incentives have led to a significant increase in maize cultivation for the generation of energy from biomass in Germany. The expansion of maize acreage resulted in an increased risk of water erosion due to the low vegetative soil cover after the seeding of the maize and the linear structure and...
Estimating the value of electricity storage in an energy-only wholesale market
Authors: Dylan McConnell, Tim Forcey, M. Sandiford Abstract : Price volatility and increasing renewable energy generation have raised interest in the potential opportunities for storage technologies in energy-only electricity markets. In this paper we explore the value of a price-taking storage device in such a market, the National Electricity Market (NEM) in Australia. Our analysis suggests that...
Five Years of Declining Annual Consumption of Grid-Supplied Electricity
Authors: Mike Sandiford; Tim Forcey; Alan Pears; Dylan McConnell THE ELECTRICITY JOURNAL, Volume: 28, Issue 7, Pages: 1-22, DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2015.07.007, Published: AUG 2015 Abstract: For decades, consumption of grid-supplied electricity increased in line with a growing economy. In the five years since 2009, however, annual consumption in eastern Australia declined by 7 percent, even while the...
Process modelling to assess the sequestration and productivity benefits of soil carbon for pasture
Authors : Rachelle Meyer; Brendan R Cullen; Ian R Johnson; Richard J Eckard Abstract : Soil carbon is often cited as having potential to provide both climate change mitigation and adaptation benefits. Given the extensive ecosystem service benefits of soil organic matter (SOM), including increasing N supply and plant-available water-holding capacity (PAWHC), we hypothesized that on-farm benefits...
Retrospective modeling of the merit-order effect
McConnell, D; Hearps, P; Eales, D; Sandiford, M ; Dunn, R; Wright, M ; Bateman, L ENERGY POLICY, Volume: 58, Pages: 17-27, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.052, Published: JUL 2013 Abstract : In electricity markets that use a merit order dispatch system, generation capacity is ranked by the price that it is bid into the market. Demand is then met by dispatching electricity according to this rank,...
Can air pollutant controls change global warming?
Strefler, J; Luderer, G; Kriegler, E; Meinshausen, M ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, Volume: 41, Pages: 33-43, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.04.009, Published: AUG 2014 Abstract : In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool...
Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation
Rogelj, J; Schaeffer, M; Meinshausen, M; Shindell, DT; Hare, W; Klimont, Z; Velders, GJM; Amann, M; Schellnhuber, HJ PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Volume: 111, Issue: 46, Pages: 16325-16330, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1415631111, Published: NOV 18 2014 Abstract : Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers...
Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning
Schleussner, CF (Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich)[ 2,1 ] ; Levermann, A (Levermann, Anders)[ 3,1 ] ; Meinshausen, M (Meinshausen, Malte)[ 4,1 ] CLIMATIC CHANGE, Volume: 127, Issue: 3-4, Pages: 579-586, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2, Published: DEC 2014 Abstract : Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other...
Complementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates
Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, M., and Nauels, A. Revised: 01 Jun 2015 – Accepted: 11 Aug 2015 – Published: 02 Sep 2015 Abstract . Thermal expansion of seawater is one of the most important contributors to global sea level rise in the past 100 years. Yet, observational estimates of thermal expansion are sparse, mostly limited to the upper ocean layers, and only a part of the available climate model...
Web tools and Projects we developed
The live tracker of the Australian electricity market.
This website is based on a Nature Climate Change study that compares Nationally Determined Contributions with equitable national emissions trajectories in line with the five categories of equity outlined by the IPCC.
Run one of the most popular reduced-complexity climate carbon cycle models online. Used by IPCC, UNEP GAP reports and numerous scientific publications.
Check out our analysis of all the post-2020 targets that countries announced under the Paris Agreement.