Climate Change, Disasters and Violent Conflict

Climate Change, Disasters and Violent Conflict

Wednesday, 27 November 2019 - 11:00am to 12:00pm

The frequency and intensity of disasters related to natural hazards, such as droughts, storms or floods, will increase in the future. Along with the growth of population and assets in vulnerable areas, climate change is one driver of this. There has been widespread speculation about the security implications of climate change, with both scholars and policy makers being concerned that climate-related disasters increase the risk of violent conflict. This talk traces the potential pathways connecting disasters to conflict and exemplifies them using the Syrian civil war as a case study. Afterwards, it presents new, multi-method evidence on the topic, showing that climate-related disasters increase the risk of violent conflict onset in certain contexts.

Event Location: 
Australian-German College of Climate and Energy
Level 1, 187 Grattan Street
3010 Parkville , VIC
Victoria
Documents
Speakers
School of Geography, University of Melbourne

Tobias currently studies the intersections between (1) global environmental change (including climate change) and (2) peace, conflict and security. His three-year DECRA project analyses how high-impact disasters resulting from natural hazards (e.g., storms, floods, droughts) can affect the (de-)escalation of armed conflicts. Further research interests of Tobias include climate change and conflict, conflict de-escalation, environmental peacebuilding, environmental politics, research methods, and the critical geopolitics of education. While taking a global comparative approach combining qualitative and quantitative information, for instance via qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), he has also done extensive fieldwork, most recently in Israel and Palestine in 2018.

Tobias holds an MA in Political Science (Leipzig, 2012) and a PhD in Earth Sciences (Hamburg, 2015). Afterwards, he worked at the Georg Eckert Institute and the University of Braunschweig, and held visiting positions at the University of Melbourne and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

His research has been funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC), the German Research Foundation (DBU), the European Union External Action Service (EU-EAS), and the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU), among others. Recently, Tobias published in journals like Nature Climate Change, Global Environmental Change, Journal of Peace Research, Political Geography, International Studies Review, and Annals of the Association of American Geographers.  

Web tools and Projects we developed

  • Open-NEM

    The live tracker of the Australian electricity market.

  • Paris Equity Check

    This website is based on a Nature Climate Change study that compares Nationally Determined Contributions with equitable national emissions trajectories in line with the five categories of equity outlined by the IPCC.

  • liveMAGICC Climate Model

    Run one of the most popular reduced-complexity climate carbon cycle models online. Used by IPCC, UNEP GAP reports and numerous scientific publications.

  • NDC & INDC Factsheets

    Check out our analysis of all the post-2020 targets that countries announced under the Paris Agreement.