A short-lived gas shortfall - a discussion
In the recently published report A short-lived gas shortfall (May 2017), Dylan McConnell and Tim Forcey found that there is a shortage of "cheap" gas, but not a gas supply "shortfall", as claimed by AEMO (March 2017). The University of Melbourne research found that AEMO's forecast shortfall is very small, amounting to no more than around 0.2% of annual supply. The short-term political response at the time, was a call for "more gas supply and gas suppliers" with the federal government declaring certain restrictions could be placed on gas exports. Dylan and Tim found that high gas prices combined with falling renewable and storage costs means that there are cheaper options than developing new gas resources - perhaps we've outgrown gas in the electricity sector?
Dylan is a Chemical Engineer, with experience as an energy analyst. He has a detailed understanding of the cost structure of energy technologies and the electricity market. He was an author of the Melbourne Energy Institute's Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review, commissioned by the Garnaut Review, an investigation of renewable technology costs and projections. He has also developed detailed energy market models for analyzing the National Electricity Market electricity dispatch and price-setting system, in the context of understanding the effect of distributed solar photovoltaic systems and other technologies affecting wholesale electricity demand.
Tim has 35 years of industrial experience (electricity, oil and gas, petrochemicals) with focus on energy production, transmission and consumption. Past employers and clients include Exxon Mobil, BHP, Jemena, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Moreland Energy Foundation - Positive Charge, Melbourne Energy Institute, and the Australian-German Climate and Energy College