US-Proofing the Paris Climate Agreement

Friday, 9 December 2016 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

What can be done if a future US President withdraws from, or attempts to undermine from within, the Paris Climate Agreement? It is a question that has tragically become all too important with the election of Donal Trump. It is a critical question for an agreement which relies on universal participation for legitimacy and to create a ‘market signal’. The US can, and likely will, withdraw from either the Paris Climate Agreement (4 years) or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1 year). For now, the Paris Agreement is vulnerable to the recalcitrance of the US, or any other major party. It possesses no non-party measures or effective compliance mechanism, although it can be amended to remedy this Achilles heel. Through amendments to Article 6 a market link between subnational states in the US and international carbon markets could be created. Ideally, a more semi-global approach with punitive trade measures could be taken to help US-proof an alternative climate agreement or ‘climate club’. The Paris Agreement will be vulnerable to a renegade US unless amendments to the treaty are made or outside actions are taken. Relying on the good will of a single president is short-sighted. Longer-term climate governance needs to take seriously the threat of non-parties, particularly if they are superpowers.

Event Location: 
Fritz Loewe Theatre
School of Earth Sciences, Elgin Street
Parkville, VIC 3010
Australian National University

Luke is a lecturer in climate and environmental policy at the Fenner School of Environment and Society and Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University (ANU), and a Senior Economist with Vivid Economics. He is a specialist in environmental and climate policy, having advised the Australian parliament on the ratification of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. He holds both a Doctorate in Political Science (2016) and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the ANU (2011). As a consultant, he has worked for a range of public and private clients including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. He is a regular media commentator and his research has been covered by international media outlets such as the Guardian, the Washington Post, the New Yorker and the New York Times.