Climate extreme events and crop yields – The development of impact emulators for the use in Early Warning Systems
Elisabeth Vogel’s PhD confirmation seminar Friday 8 May 2015, 12 noon in the Lab14 seminar room at 700 Swanston Street (corner of Grattan/Swanston).
Abstract
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that the frequency and/or intensity of different types of weather extreme events is likely to increase in many regions across the globe under climate change. Early Warning Systems (EWS) form an important part of national disaster risk management strategies and are important to protect communities against the immediate threat and consequences of climate-related extreme events.
Additional to meteorological information on upcoming weather events, recipients of early warnings require information packages adjusted to their individual needs, including information relevant to their specific livelihoods (e.g. farmers, pastoralists), their role (e.g. humanitarian relief agency, the general public) and sector affiliation (e.g. water sector, agricultural sector). The provision of sector-relevant information requires the translation of weather information into sectoral impact information.
This PhD project will explore how climate impact models can be used in EWS for the prediction of sector-specific impacts of climate extremes. It will focus on the agricultural sector, the main livelihood source for a majority of people in many developing countries and a sector that is critically depending on weather conditions. Based on modelling data created within ISI-MIP2 (the global Intersectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2), statistical relationships between large scale oscillation indices (e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and weather-related impacts on crop yields will be derived. The predictive capacity of these derived relationships at different time scales will be assessed. Finally, the upscaling of the methodology to other sectors covered by ISI-MIP (e.g. health, water) will be explored.
Elisabeth completed her PhD at the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, researching the effects of climate extreme events on global agriculture. Prior to coming to Melbourne, Elisabeth completed a degree in Environmental Science and Engineering at the Technical University of Berlin, with specialisations in agriculture, soil science and ecological modelling. She held various research and consulting positions, including with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research and the United Nations Environment Programme. Elisabeth's research interests are centred on the effects of climate change and climate extreme events on ecosystems and agriculture, and the sustainable management of natural resources in view of global climatic and demographic change.
PhD Project: Extreme weather events and extreme impacts – using climate impact models for the prediction of multi-sectoral extreme events.
This PhD project will explore the use of climate impact models for the prediction of sector-specific impacts of weather events. More specifically, it will use model output data created within ISI-MIP2 (the global Intersectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2) to derive relationships between large scale oscillation indices (e.g. ENSO, NAO, IOD) and seasonal forecasts of weather-related impacts for current climate conditions. This project will focus on the agricultural sector, which is the main livelihood source of a large fraction of the population in many developing countries and impacts are directly linked to the food security of these population groups. However, the transferal of the methodology to other sectors (e.g. health, water) will be explored.
Supervisors: A/Prof. Malte Meinshausen, Prof. David Karoly
German Supervisor: Dr. Katja Frieler
Start Date: February 2014 Completion: February 2019
Contact: elisabeth.vogel@climate-energy-college.org