Aviation, Shipping, and the Paris Agreement
The long-term success of the Paris Agreement and limiting warming well below 2°C requires global net CO2 emissions to reach zero by 2045-2070. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the international aviation and marine sectors contribute substantially to global emissions; currently ~3% and expected to rise. However, these sectors are not covered under national climate action plans. Recent policy developments in both sectors begin to address emissions mitigation but are limited in scope.
To guide further policy development and inform the ongoing international negotiations, we present a suite of emissions scenarios for the aviation and marine sectors reflecting a range of policy options from little action to ambitious. Based on these scenarios, we examine how emissions from aviation and marine activities will (1) affect the available carbon budget for other sectors and (2) contribute to warming in the coming century. Links between the newly established CORSIA mechanism for limiting aviation emissions, the Paris Agreement, and EU internal policy will also be explored.
Dr. Louise Jeffery is a Post-Doctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany where she leads the PRIMAP emissions module group. At PIK, Louise examines the pledges, rules, and agreements of the UN climate change negotiations, providing critique and assessment of their effectiveness. Her published work includes analysis of how mitigation burdens can be shared fairly among countries and assessments of the sufficiency of current climate action plans. Currently she is focussing on how policies and pledges in two major sectors - land-use and international aviation and shipping – contribute to meeting the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
Louise holds a Ph.D. in Earth and Environmental Sciences from the University of Michigan, where she explored the links between landscape development and long-term climate change in the Andes. Prior to that she studied natural sciences at the University of Cambridge.