Tropical cyclones, storm surge and urban vulnerability

The recent experience of New York City during Hurricane Sandy has focused new attention on the possible impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and their associated marine flooding. In this talk, our latest understanding of the effects of climate on tropical cyclones is reviewed, with particular emphasis on the vulnerability of large urban areas and small island states to a combination of projected changes in tropical cyclone characteristics and sea level rise. For future storm surge incidence, it is found that in some locations the anticipated changes in sea level dominate over any plausible increases in tropical cyclone intensity. Examples of the potential implications of these climate projections for policy are given.